The Great Job Wipeout: AI Set to Crush 300M Careers - report from Goldman Sacks

[old-spice2]

I don’t think AI will replace any Software Engineering job in near future, maybe junior / mid level Software Engineers may be more productive with of the Code Assistant tools, and those paying almost half a mill should be safe

whenever someone says more productive, I always read it as a job loss. I think we are underestimating the number of new jobs that will not be created because of these tools already. If software engineer can improve their efficiency by 50% then that's reduction of half the workforce directly. That's millions of people.

Internet drastically improved communication in last two decades. It resulted in lot more production and consumption and gdp increased dramatically worldwide. It resulted in improvement in quality of life for billions. Will AI result in any such revolution?

Every tech improvement need not lead to better jobs. Back in 1920s there were thousands of buggy (horse/coach) drivers who used to ply them as cabs in NYC. Then cars took over, many of those buggy drivers learned car driving and became taxi drivers. Then yellow cabs were replaced with Uber. No problem, cab drivers started using their vehicle as Uber. With autonomous driving, these cab drivers will be jobless, cannot switch to anything. Cannot learn Java/Python and work for Wymo/Google. Pichai is already laying off MS level folks there.

If millions lose their jobs due to AI/automation, who will buy the products made by these modern tech? There will be a severe depression. Companies will then decide to ditch AI/automation and go back to DB2/CICS/Cobol. People like me can rejoin the workforce as Gen-Z don't know a stuff about these wonderful technologies of mainframes.

[desi4ever]

I don’t think AI will replace any Software Engineering job in near future, maybe junior / mid level Software Engineers may be more productive with of the Code Assistant tools, and those paying almost half a mill should be safe

whenever someone says more productive, I always read it as a job loss. I think we are underestimating the number of new jobs that will not be created because of these tools already. If software engineer can improve their efficiency by 50% then that's reduction of half the workforce directly. That's millions of people.

Internet drastically improved communication in last two decades. It resulted in lot more production and consumption and gdp increased dramatically worldwide. It resulted in improvement in quality of life for billions. Will AI result in any such revolution?

Every tech improvement need not lead to better jobs. Back in 1920s there were thousands of buggy (horse/coach) drivers who used to ply them as cabs in NYC. Then cars took over, many of those buggy drivers learned car driving and became taxi drivers. Then yellow cabs were replaced with Uber. No problem, cab drivers started using their vehicle as Uber. With autonomous driving, these cab drivers will be jobless, cannot switch to anything. Cannot learn Java/Python and work for Wymo/Google. Pichai is already laying off MS level folks there.

If millions lose their jobs due to AI/automation, who will buy the products made by these modern tech? There will be a severe depression. Companies will then decide to ditch AI/automation and go back to DB2/CICS/Cobol. People like me can rejoin the workforce as Gen-Z don't know a stuff about these wonderful technlogies of mainframes.

You kind of found a solution to the problem of AI taking aways jobs. I think AI will do what computers were in the 90s. The loan officer will still be there , instead of greeting you and clicking a few buttons based on tribal knowledge, he/she will use AI based tools to determine your credit worthiness and ask you to sign the dotted line or politely ask you to leave.

Regarding drivers losing jobs to autonomous driving ,those unemployed drivers will probably get hired to operate something else . America cannot/will not let its citizens unemployed for a long time for the exact reasons you mention - they need people with money to purchase stuff they put in the market

[SAPPORO]

It looks like AI has been crushing one of its own hottest job, Prompt engineer!
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/tec ... ed-7278658

[SAPPORO]

I don’t think AI will replace any Software Engineering job in near future, maybe junior / mid level Software Engineers may be more productive with of the Code Assistant tools, and those paying almost half a mill should be safe

whenever someone says more productive, I always read it as a job loss. I think we are underestimating the number of new jobs that will not be created because of these tools already. If software engineer can improve their efficiency by 50% then that's reduction of half the workforce directly. That's millions of people.

Internet drastically improved communication in last two decades. It resulted in lot more production and consumption and gdp increased dramatically worldwide. It resulted in improvement in quality of life for billions. Will AI result in any such revolution?

Every tech improvement need not lead to better jobs. Back in 1920s there were thousands of buggy (horse/coach) drivers who used to ply them as cabs in NYC. Then cars took over, many of those buggy drivers learned car driving and became taxi drivers. Then yellow cabs were replaced with Uber. No problem, cab drivers started using their vehicle as Uber. With autonomous driving, these cab drivers will be jobless, cannot switch to anything. Cannot learn Java/Python and work for Wymo/Google. Pichai is already laying off MS level folks there.

If millions lose their jobs due to AI/automation, who will buy the products made by these modern tech? There will be a severe depression. Companies will then decide to ditch AI/automation and go back to DB2/CICS/Cobol. People like me can rejoin the workforce as Gen-Z don't know a stuff about these wonderful technologies of mainframes.

Starbucks is already leading the way in ditching automation in favor of humans
https://thehustle.co/news/starbucks-cha ... s-vs.-tech

[Lakshya]

I use generative AI heavily for research and to come up with business-IT solutions. I would say it's 80% correct. Something I learned is that you should know exactly what to ask... So I think jobs will survive for those who know "what to ask." And I know nothing about programming. But I know exactly what the pain point of business very well. Not what business is telling me, but I have well understood the core issue from my business experience, just like some solid programmers know in and outs of their domain. The rest is how deep you penetrate any powerful AI tool via prompt engineering. I think AI can make you a smarter and well-researched person, at least in my area of work. I know it can do other tons of $hit, but I have no interest in that. Actually, I have no interest in learning anything new, but the learning curve is relatively short for conceptual understanding, and once you are clear, then you are good.

Though I'm not sure AI has any solution for replacing WITCH's lousy employees... who have no clue how to talk to a client or how to present themselves in front of a client and have zero business etiquette. I mean repetitive jobs can be killed now. A guy like me can write a 5-page program now, and who doesn't know a basic SQL query.

On the other side, I have observed, apart from Non-IT, WhatsApp, uncles and aunties are using AI to generate their Ghibli-bibli image. Or X warriors are asking Grok everything. Is this true? Is this true? I vaguely remember when the pager and Nokia phone came into the picture in India; their maximum use was to share jokes and shayari. Don't expect much use of AI from India. Some new fraud will come via AI, and smart people will still move to the US and, unfortunately, the rest in IT may suffer. I heard WITCH created only around 12k jobs last year for fresh graduates. Before that, WITCH saved small-town youth via some testing and low-level IT jobs. Now this may stay limited to big-city, good-school graduates.

Anyway, I have 9.5 more years to drag. After that, I am done (in theory, assuming my spouse will work). In that case, after 9.5 years, I don't give a F if AI takes the entire world's jobs, except for my wife's

[RBee]

AI is making big impact in generating report for Technical PM type of roles but traditional engineering jobs still will continue to exist for a while atleast.

>>Lakshya said Anyway, I have 9.5 more years to drag.
Is it some magic number or based on hitting a milestone age 50 or 55 to retire?