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I think I can reach a Billion USD by the time I am old!

fire_india wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 10:58 am I think I can reach a Billion USD by the time I am old!

Quite possible with initial 15M annualized return of 24% in next 20 years

JINSAKAI wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 11:23 am

fire_india wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 10:58 am I think I can reach a Billion USD by the time I am old!

Quite possible with initial 15M annualized return of 24% in next 20 years

In the following 10 years it might become 10 billion dollars, and we would finally know who FI is since he will be on the Forbes' richest people list!

Sometimes I think if the current consensus on how much is good enough to retire/to be considered wealthy/FIRE movements is vastly outdated. For starters, Even adjusted for inflation - there are way too many deca-millionaires in every big city in the US and the average age of millionaires just kept going down and down. The thing about wealth is it's relative to other people and the lifespan of the person. Also, a lot of these youngins are likely fully invested in equities which means they're exposed to a lot of risk. On the other hand, if inflation doesn't go back to 2% even fixed income assets will get eaten alive. The traditional safe withdrawal rules of (around 3%) will likely stop working unless there's a big crash in asset prices and a lot of wealth gets 'reset'.

nodegree wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:11 pm Sometimes I think if the current consensus on how much is good enough to retire/to be considered wealthy/FIRE movements is vastly outdated. For starters, Even adjusted for inflation - there are way too many deca-millionaires in every big city in the US and the average age of millionaires just kept going down and down. The thing about wealth is it's relative to other people and the lifespan of the person. Also, a lot of these youngins are likely fully invested in equities which means they're exposed to a lot of risk. On the other hand, if inflation doesn't go back to 2% even fixed income assets will get eaten alive. The traditional safe withdrawal rules of (around 3%) will likely stop working unless there's a big crash in asset prices and a lot of wealth gets 'reset'.

I would only be worried if average salaries explode in real terms, which I dont see happening. If the new millionaires are rising due to rising stock prices, thats not a worry as long as you are also invested. The Safe withdrawal rate accounts for inflation and rising stock prices, so that wont change. It doesnt require a crash.

In nominal terms, prices will explode, sure. But so will your portfolio.

nodegree wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:11 pm Sometimes I think if the current consensus on how much is good enough to retire/to be considered wealthy/FIRE movements is vastly outdated. For starters, Even adjusted for inflation - there are way too many deca-millionaires in every big city in the US and the average age of millionaires just kept going down and down. The thing about wealth is it's relative to other people and the lifespan of the person. Also, a lot of these youngins are likely fully invested in equities which means they're exposed to a lot of risk. On the other hand, if inflation doesn't go back to 2% even fixed income assets will get eaten alive. The traditional safe withdrawal rules of (around 3%) will likely stop working unless there's a big crash in asset prices and a lot of wealth gets 'reset'.

The problem of deca-millionaires exists from even 1988 , NJ being the highest concentration these rich people now.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm ... story.html

JINSAKAI wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2025 11:13 am

nodegree wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:11 pm Sometimes I think if the current consensus on how much is good enough to retire/to be considered wealthy/FIRE movements is vastly outdated. For starters, Even adjusted for inflation - there are way too many deca-millionaires in every big city in the US and the average age of millionaires just kept going down and down. The thing about wealth is it's relative to other people and the lifespan of the person. Also, a lot of these youngins are likely fully invested in equities which means they're exposed to a lot of risk. On the other hand, if inflation doesn't go back to 2% even fixed income assets will get eaten alive. The traditional safe withdrawal rules of (around 3%) will likely stop working unless there's a big crash in asset prices and a lot of wealth gets 'reset'.

The problem of deca-millionaires exists from even 1988 , NJ being the highest concentration these rich people now.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm ... story.html

The first million is the hardest and the net worth grows exponentially after that. The only exception to the rule is our business genius, can't believe he had a net worth of $1/$5 billion in 1988 and now he's at $8 billion mainly because of the DJT stock without which it would have been $4 billion.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ar ... rs/349875/

nodegree wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:11 pm Sometimes I think if the current consensus on how much is good enough to retire/to be considered wealthy/FIRE movements is vastly outdated. For starters, Even adjusted for inflation - there are way too many deca-millionaires in every big city in the US and the average age of millionaires just kept going down and down. The thing about wealth is it's relative to other people and the lifespan of the person. Also, a lot of these youngins are likely fully invested in equities which means they're exposed to a lot of risk. On the other hand, if inflation doesn't go back to 2% even fixed income assets will get eaten alive. The traditional safe withdrawal rules of (around 3%) will likely stop working unless there's a big crash in asset prices and a lot of wealth gets 'reset'.

This is irrational fear. It doesnt matter if there are too many deca-millionaires or billionaires. What matters is what is your life, relative to the median person in your city and how much is your networth relative to the median person in your city.

If your networth is above the median person and lifestyle below the median you are doing very well.

nodegree wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:11 pm Sometimes I think if the current consensus on how much is good enough to retire/to be considered wealthy/FIRE movements is vastly outdated. For starters, Even adjusted for inflation - there are way too many deca-millionaires in every big city in the US and the average age of millionaires just kept going down and down. The thing about wealth is it's relative to other people and the lifespan of the person. Also, a lot of these youngins are likely fully invested in equities which means they're exposed to a lot of risk. On the other hand, if inflation doesn't go back to 2% even fixed income assets will get eaten alive. The traditional safe withdrawal rules of (around 3%) will likely stop working unless there's a big crash in asset prices and a lot of wealth gets 'reset'.

Yes, following are my concerns
1. Runaway Inflation
2. Medical Expenses(inspite of having Insurance). In India, now a days - a small OT procedure can cost lakhs.
3. Stock market(or real estate) crash and stagnate for years.

post_r2i06 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 13, 2025 9:21 pm
Yes, following are my concerns
1. Runaway Inflation
2. Medical Expenses(inspite of having Insurance). In India, now a days - a small OT procedure can cost lakhs.
3. Stock market(or real estate) crash and stagnate for years.

After 3 months of living here are my observations, from the perspective of a retired ex-NRI with $ savings. May not be applicable for RI who never left India or were not lucky enough to make it big in corp world. I have couple of friends here who made it big at work and their networth is considerable including multiple RE holdings and IPO/stock options money. Plus few of them inherited properties, so their outflow for buying home was zero.

- inflation. Once you own a paid off home and a car, inflation does not make any difference. Remember there is no schooling cost for me and also as a senior my interest in eating out is declining (lack of appetite). Most of the time vegetable/dal prices shoot up due to adverse weather condition but within 1 month it comes back to normal, thanks due to Modi govt intervention. Like the govt banned export of rice two years back and they curb onion/dal exports when there is a crisis. If you have maid then cooking at home becomes a breeze and it cost lot less compared to eating out, not to mention about variety and hygiene.

For RI, if the household is a dual income then may be they should have invested in Indian MF 10-20 years back. They will be sitting on 12-15% gain/yr which is more than sufficient to beat inflation which averages at 7%. LTCG is only 12.5%.

What I noticed in recent time for RI, once you hit 40-45, you reach senior level and salary is around 75L and up. Many companies get rid of such people and replace them with less expensive staff. This is common in IT service industry. At that age the family has school/college going kids, if it is a joint family may have old sick parents and EMI. It is difficult to get another position at that salary level unless you have some special skills. I don't know how they manage their affairs. Very scary situation to be in.

- medical expenses. For retired persons there are many private insurance available that gives coverage of 10L for 25K/yr. That comes to Rs 2K/month which is affordable for me. I am still learning the intricacies of med insurance in the country. The terms they use like booster, super top-up, fast forward are difficult to understand. I need to hang on till 70 and after that Modi's Ayushman Bharat will take care up to 5L.

Yes medical costs have gone up for surgeries and 5L bill is common for such activities. Usually employer insurance covers such bills and they cover even for parents. Again if you get laid off in your 40s you are hosed.

- stock market - in the last 30 years it has given a return of 15%, if you had followed a disciplined approach of RCA and not panic during downturn. The challenge is to have enough spare cash to invest.

With all the turmoil created by Trump and his tariff, India is the best place for a people like me. Tariff is going to add another 20% to prices of essentials in US. In India it will not matter as it is a self sufficient economy except for oil. India is pretty good in rice/wheat, vegetables, healthcare, pharmacy and other essentials. For retired person inflation is not a worry but Wall St gyrations are a concern. It will be better after 4 years.